of the economy. whose happening is mitt romney is having to play defense with his own voting group. the time he has to spend shoring them up is time he's not spending getting swing voters. >> pelley: john, polls that are taken about this point in september sometimes predict the winner and sometimes they don't. in 2008, we had obama over mccain at about this point, but in the year 2000, we had gore over bush about this point. how predictive are these polls six weeks out. >> reporter: if we go all the way back to 1952, eisenhower's first election, the vast majority of the time the candidates who was ahead of the polls ended up winning in the end. but mitt romney can hold on to, though, is that president's john kennedy, ronald reagan, and george w. bush are all tied or behind, scott, and they pulled it out in the end. >> pelley: john, thanks very much. >> pelley: as in politics, things can change pretty quickly in sports. the nfl and its referees seemed ready to dig in for a long fight over pay and pens